Why I Doubt North Korea Will Start a War With the US

Why I Doubt North Korea Will Start a War

Photo Credit: Stefan Krasowski

With the US

I know many people probably disagree with me, but I highly doubt the US and North Korea will go to war… at least anytime soon. The main reason is because North Korea is a rational actor, despite what many will have you believe. Furthermore, the consequences would be severe for North Korea to use its arsenal. Finally, North Korea’s primary and ultimate objective is survival.

North Korea is a rational actor. Their moves are calculated. It is likely that if North Korea was not a rational actor it would cease to exist today. Do you ever wonder why North Korea tries to claim the spotlight time and time again? It realizes it needs to stay relevant and the easiest way to do so is to scare the western media to cover it. That way North Korea remains a news story. While North Korea has taken some crazy actions in the past, none of those incidents escalated to war. Even the sinking of the Cheonan by North Korea on March 26, 2010 didn’t start a war. That would indicate North Korea calculated the risks in those moves. That is the work of a rational actor. An irrational actor would be more likely to overstep its bounds and create a confrontation that could severely damage itself. North Korea has yet to do this.

From my perspective, North Korea does not plan on actually using its nuclear weapons arsenal. There are multiple reasons why. The first is, the entire purpose of its arsenal is to serve as a deterrent. The purpose of a deterrent is that its show of strength is enough to deter an adversarial state from attacking you. North Korea’s nuclear weapons is serving that purpose. Why do you think North Korea is focusing on developing an ICBM that is capable of reaching Washington DC? It’s to increase the deterrence value of its nuclear weapons.

The second reason is, if North Korea actually used its nuclear weapons it would force the world community to take severe action. The sanctions are hurting North Korea, but they are not crippling. So far, that is as far as the world is willing to go. However, if North Korea uses a nuclear weapon, the world would be forced to take action to prevent North Korea from doing so again. That in turn would endanger its survival.

The third reason is related to the second reason. China would have to take action against North Korea or rescind its protection over the Regime. China is vital to North Korea’s survival. It allows North Korean businesses to operate, it purchases the natural resources North Korea exports, and stands by the Regime in the international arena. North Korea serves as a buffer against a pro-US country (South Korea) hence protecting China. However, without China, North Korea would suffer economically, and lose an influential support in the international arena. Its chance of survival would be greatly diminished without Chinese support.

Then comes the fourth, and the strongest reason why North Korea doesn’t actually want to go to war. North Korea’s ultimate goal is survival. In the context of trying to survive, North Korea’s actions make a lot of sense, especially if you understand Korean history. Ever since the crumbling of Koguryeo, the Korean peninsula has been weaker than its neighbors. It served as a vassal state to  various Chinese Dynasties over the centuries. Not in the way you probably think, but that’s an explanation for another time. It fell to the Mongols. It fell to the Japanese twice (the invasions from 1592-1598, and Japanese colonization in the 1900s). That is a dark history of the Korean peninsula being bullied and influenced by its neighbors. However, nuclear weapons gives a small country such as North Korea extreme leverage against its larger neighbors. Plus in the Korean War, if China did not intervene, there probably wouldn’t be a North Korea. I doubt North Korea wishes to wage another war because there is the possibility it could lose and be annexed.

These reasons are why I sincerely doubt North Korea will actually go to war with the United States. If you believe, like I do, that North Korea’s main goal is to survive, going to war with the United States will make it difficult to achieve survival. Now, with President Trump, I can’t guarantee the United States won’t go to war with North Korea. For many years, the United States was predictable, but with Trump, it’s hard to say with certainty that the US is rational; becoming the very thing people fear North Korea is.